Statistical Evaluation of COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake and Its Determinants in Nigeria (2021–2024)

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic created one of the most severe global health challenges in modern history. Vaccination became the principal strategy to reduce infection, severity, and mortality. However, in Nigeria, the level of vaccine uptake remained uneven across regions. This study statistically evaluates the COVID-19 vaccination uptake and its determinants in Nigeria between 2021 and 2024, using national datasets from the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) and World Health Organization (WHO) reports.

Through descriptive and inferential statistical techniques, including logistic regression and correlation analysis, the study identifies socio-economic, demographic, and regional factors influencing vaccine acceptance. The findings reveal that age, education, income level, and trust in government health programs significantly affect vaccination uptake. Moreover, urban residents recorded higher vaccination rates compared to rural populations, largely due to better access to healthcare facilities and information.

The research concludes that increasing public awareness, addressing misinformation, and improving healthcare accessibility are vital for achieving equitable vaccine coverage. Therefore, the study recommends that health authorities intensify community-based campaigns and strengthen vaccine logistics across all regions of Nigeria.

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2019 caused widespread disruptions in global health systems, economies, and daily life. Nigeria recorded its first confirmed case in February 2020, and since then, the country has implemented several containment measures such as lockdowns, travel restrictions, and public health campaigns. Nevertheless, vaccination remained the most effective and sustainable strategy to control the spread of the virus.

The introduction of COVID-19 vaccines in Nigeria began in March 2021 under the coordination of the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA). Vaccines such as AstraZeneca, Moderna, and Pfizer were administered in phases, targeting frontline workers, the elderly, and later the general population. Despite these efforts, the overall uptake rate has been inconsistent across regions.

Various factors contributed to this variation — including vaccine hesitancy, misinformation, cultural beliefs, access to vaccination centers, and trust in public institutions. Consequently, a detailed statistical evaluation is necessary to identify the determinants of vaccination uptake, highlight regional differences, and provide recommendations for improving public health strategies.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Although the Nigerian government launched nationwide vaccination campaigns with support from global partners, the level of vaccination coverage remains below the target recommended by the World Health Organization. Rural areas, in particular, report significantly lower uptake compared to urban centers.

Furthermore, public skepticism, fueled by misinformation and distrust in government programs, has slowed vaccination progress. While several reports describe these challenges qualitatively, there is limited quantitative analysis showing how demographic and socio-economic factors statistically influence vaccine uptake.

Therefore, this study seeks to bridge that gap by statistically evaluating vaccination uptake across Nigeria between 2021 and 2024, identifying the determinants of vaccine acceptance, and providing evidence-based insights for future health interventions.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The main objective of this study is to evaluate COVID-19 vaccination uptake and its determinants in Nigeria between 2021 and 2024 using statistical methods.

Specifically, the study aims to:

1. Assess the overall trend of COVID-19 vaccination uptake across Nigeria.

2. Identify key socio-demographic and economic factors influencing vaccine acceptance.

3. Examine regional differences in vaccination coverage between rural and urban areas.

4. Model the relationship between education, income, and vaccination likelihood using regression analysis.

5. Provide recommendations to improve vaccine distribution and public trust.

1.4 Research Questions

1. What is the trend of COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Nigeria between 2021 and 2024?

2. Which socio-economic and demographic factors influence vaccination rates?

3. Are there significant regional or gender differences in vaccine acceptance?

4. How does education or income level affect the likelihood of being vaccinated?

5. What policy strategies can improve future vaccine uptake in Nigeria?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

Null Hypothesis (H₀):
There is no significant relationship between socio-demographic factors and COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Nigeria.

Alternative Hypothesis (H₁):
There is a significant relationship between socio-demographic factors and COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Nigeria.

1.6 Significance of the Study

This study is highly significant to public health policymakers, healthcare workers, and research institutions. Firstly, it provides statistical evidence on how individual and regional factors influence vaccine uptake, allowing policymakers to design targeted health campaigns. Secondly, it supports ongoing vaccination programs by identifying gaps in awareness and accessibility.

Moreover, the study contributes to academic literature on public health statistics, behavioral epidemiology, and vaccine acceptance in developing nations. For health administrators, the findings serve as a practical guide to improving communication strategies and resource allocation. Ultimately, the study promotes evidence-based decision-making for future immunization programs.

1.7 Scope of the Study

The study focuses on COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Nigeria between 2021 and 2024. However, for more detailed analysis, selected states such as Lagos, Kano, and Enugu may be compared to represent regional diversity. Variables considered include age, gender, education, income, and residence (urban or rural). Data sources include the NPHCDA, NCDC, and World Health Organization (WHO) databases.

The study does not cover post-vaccination health outcomes or side effects but focuses primarily on determinants and coverage rates.

1.8 Limitations of the Study

The study relies largely on secondary data, which may contain inconsistencies or reporting delays. Some states have incomplete vaccination records, especially in rural areas. Additionally, the accuracy of self-reported information in surveys may affect data reliability. Despite these challenges, robust statistical techniques such as regression diagnostics and data cleaning were used to ensure valid and reliable findings.

1.9 Definition of Key Terms

• Vaccination Uptake: The proportion of the eligible population that has received one or more doses of a vaccine.

• Microdata: Individual-level data collected from surveys or administrative records.

• Determinants: Factors or variables that influence a particular behavior or outcome.

• Vaccine Hesitancy: Reluctance or refusal to be vaccinated despite the availability of vaccines.

• Regression Analysis: A statistical method used to examine relationships between variables and predict outcomes.

19 Vaccination Uptake and Its Determinants in Nigeria (2021–2024)