Time Series Analysis On The Rate Of Typhoid Fever

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE RATE OF TYPHOID FEVER

ABSTRACT

Typhoid fever is still a major public health concern in many developing nations. This study examines the rate of typhoid fever in Aba, Abia State, using a time series analysis of hospital records from 2001 to 2010.

The research analyzes the trend and seasonal variations in the reported cases and predicts future occurrences. The data came from hospital records and were analyzed using standard statistical tools.

Results show that typhoid fever occurs more often during the rainy season. The overall trend also indicates a gradual increase in the number of cases.

The study concludes that poor sanitation and unsafe water remain the main causes of the disease. It recommends better hygiene, clean water supply, and public health education to control its spread.

Keywords: Typhoid Fever, Time Series Analysis, Seasonal Variation, Disease Trend, Public Health.

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

Typhoid fever remains one of the world’s most persistent infectious diseases. It continues to challenge public health systems, especially in developing countries. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), about one in every hundred people in low-income areas suffers from typhoid fever.

The disease mostly affects children and young adults aged 5 to 19 years. It is caused by Salmonella typhi or Salmonella paratyphi bacteria. People get infected when they eat or drink food and water contaminated with feces from an infected person.

Because the bacteria thrive in dirty environments, poor waste disposal and unsafe drinking water make the disease spread faster. Early researchers once confused typhoid with typhus due to their similar symptoms. Later, scientists proved that both are separate illnesses.

When the bacteria enter the body, they pass through the intestines and spread into the bloodstream. The infection leads to high fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain. If untreated, it may cause intestinal bleeding or even death.

Budelka (1971) explained that the disease spreads mainly through contaminated food, milk, or water. Carriers who still have the bacteria in their system, even after recovery, often spread it unknowingly.

The incubation period of typhoid fever is usually 10 to 14 days. During this time, patients experience fever, weakness, and sometimes a rash. With proper treatment, recovery usually begins after the third week.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Hospitals in Aba, Abia State, have reported a steady rise in typhoid fever cases in recent years. The trend has become a source of concern to health officials and residents.

The symptoms of typhoid fever often resemble those of malaria and other infections. As a result, many patients receive wrong treatment before proper diagnosis. This situation worsens the problem and increases the spread.

It is therefore necessary to study the pattern of the disease. Understanding its trend and seasonal changes can help predict future outbreaks and improve prevention strategies.

1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study

The main aim of this study is to analyze the trend of typhoid fever in Aba from 2001 to 2010.

The specific objectives are:

1. To determine whether typhoid fever cases are increasing or decreasing within the study period.
2. To identify any seasonal variation in the reported cases of typhoid fever.
3. To forecast future cases of typhoid fever based on past data.

1.4 Significance of the Study

This research is important for several reasons.

• Government and Health Agencies: The results will help identify seasons with high infection rates. This will support better planning for awareness campaigns and preventive actions.
• Hospitals and Clinics: The findings will guide hospitals in preparing for peak infection periods by improving medical supplies and readiness.
• Researchers: The study provides a useful framework for future research on infectious disease trends.
• General Public: It will create awareness about hygiene, clean water, and early medical attention.

If the trend continues to rise, it will signal the need for stronger disease control measures.

1.5 Hypotheses of the Study

To guide this study, the following hypotheses are stated:

Hypothesis I

• H₀: The trend of typhoid fever cases from 2001–2010 does not show any significant increase.
• H₁: The trend of typhoid fever cases from 2001–2010 shows a significant increase.

Hypothesis II

• H₀: There is no seasonal variation in the number of reported typhoid fever cases.
• H₁: There is seasonal variation in the number of reported typhoid fever cases.

1.6 Scope of the Study

The research focuses on Aba, a major city in Abia State, Nigeria. It covers a ten-year period (2001–2010). The data used are hospital-based and limited to the number of reported typhoid fever cases. Laboratory tests or bacteriological details are outside the study scope.

1.7 Limitations of the Study

The study faced a few challenges. Some hospital records were confidential and required formal approval for access. A few data entries were incomplete due to poor record-keeping.

There was also a shortage of previous studies focused on typhoid trends in Aba. Financial limits and time constraints made data collection more difficult.

Despite these setbacks, every effort was made to ensure the data used were accurate and reliable.